Withdrawal Time Estimate Accuracy Analysis

Analysis of the accuracy of withdrawal time estimates versus actual finalization times.

Key Statistics

Overview

Total Withdrawals: 279

Total Estimates: 19924

Error Metrics

Mean Error: -28.15 hours

Median Error: -23.74 hours

Mean Absolute Error: 28.40 hours

Positive error means actual time was later than estimated

Day-Based Accuracy

Correct Day: 57.8%

Within ±1 day: 81.2%

Within ±2 days: 95.7%

Within ±3 days: 100.0%

Within ±7 days: 100.0%

Estimate Direction

Early Estimates: 0.0% (actual later than estimated)

Late Estimates: 53.1% (actual earlier than estimated)

Excludes estimates within ±1 hour of actual time (considered correct)

Processing Patterns

Daily Processing

Mean Withdrawals per Day: 93.0

Median Withdrawals per Day: 79.0

Maximum Withdrawals per Day: 156

Days with Processing: 3

Withdrawals are processed in bulk once per day

Accuracy Over Time

Estimate Accuracy by Time Until Finalization

Mean Absolute Error (hours) by time remaining:

0-6 hours: 6.39 hours

6-12 hours: 8.60 hours

12-24 hours: 27.36 hours

24-48 hours: 57.93 hours

48-72 hours: 58.02 hours

72+ hours: nan hours

By Lead Time

Lead Time Count Mean Error (h) Median Error (h) Mean Abs Error (h)
0-24h 9171 0.26 0.26 0.26
24-48h 1808 -21.38 -23.74 21.43
48-72h 2600 -42.69 -47.74 42.69
72h+ 6345 -65.19 -71.74 65.19

Visualizations

Error Distribution

Error Vs Leadtime

Notes:
  • Horizontal gaps represent regular update intervals
  • Points are jittered to better show density

Cumulative Accuracy

Accuracy Over Time

Daily Processing

Withdrawal Distribution

Individual Estimates

Notes